BRC TAMS Technical Report

BRC TAMS Universe Update January 2015

1. Background

The TAM Universe is updated at regular intervals to correspond with the latest household and population figures of the All Media and Products Survey (AMPS). The next update is scheduled for the 2nd of February 2015, taking the TAMS universes from AMPS 2013A to AMPS 2014A, under the management of the Broadcast Research Council (BRC).

The last TAM Universe update occurred on the 3rd March 2014 and included demographic updates from the 2011 South African National Census.

2. Review of population changes for the 2014A Universe

The TAM Household Universe (defined as the Meter Universe in AMPS) increases by 1.5% (192 735 households), and the Individual Universe grows by 0.86% (371 019 individuals), due to a slightly lower average individuals (aged 4+) per household in the 2014A Universe.

Urban populations continue to escalate as rural populations decline. The biggest growth in TV ownership has occurred in Metro areas, with a growth of 1.49%, while the rural population has decreased by 1.06% (-149 497 individuals).

It should be noted that despite a shrinking rural population, LSM 1 – 4 has increased by 671 933 individuals. Increases in the lowest LSM groups are indicative of a general regression of household LSMs due to the slow recovery of the global economy. South Africa’s GDP declined by 0.6% in the early months of 2014. Also contributing to the downward trend of the ownership of durables (LSM) were events such as the ongoing platinum miners strikes which occurred in the first half of 2014, where less money would was available in the South African economy.

When reviewing language groups, the most notable change is the growth in the Afrikaans/Both group by 285 348 individuals (4.87%).   Sotho individuals grew by 163 287 individuals (1.18%), while Nguni speakers declined slightly by -82 873 individuals (0.43%).   English/Other TV viewers remained stable.

Individuals who have access to DSTV grew by almost 2 Million individuals (13.73%), this growth is being driven primarily by the uptake of the DSTV Compact Bouquet and a range of lower priced offerings. Owners of PVR decoders increased by almost 20% (550 939 individuals).

The Non Pay Universe declined by 1.5 Million individuals. Pay TV service provider, Star Sat’s penetration also declined.

Overall the Children’s Universe increased by 176 353 (1.7%) children. While children aged 4-6 years and 11-14 years have both declined slightly, the 7 – 10 year olds have increased by 7.82% (274 605 children). All standard adult age categories have increased except for the 35 to 49 age group, which declined by 36 767 individuals (-0.45%). The biggest actual and percentage increase occurred in the 65 + years age category, with 102 664 individuals (3.98%).

Refer to Appendix A for comparisons of the 2014A Universe against the 2013A Universe.

3). Impact on Viewing

  • Methodology

Test data based on the new 2014A Universe was compared to the live ratings for the current TAM Universe (2013A), and covered two weeks, 13th October to 26th October.   Full Day (2h00 to 26h00) and Prime Time (17h00 to 22h59) were examined.

Comparisons were made for Total Individuals as well as pre-selected, commonly traded, target markets:

  • Adults 15+
  • Children 4 – 14 years
  • Adults LSM 1 – 4, Adults LSM 5 – 7, Adults LSM 8 – 10
  • Adults Nguni, Adults Sotho, Adults English/Other, Adults Afrikaans/Both

 

  • Weighting Efficiency

When the 2014A Universe is applied to the TAM data, weighting efficiencies improve from an average of 68% to an average of 74%.

Weighting efficiency is a statistical measure that reflects how closely the sample proportions match the Universe proportions as well as the complexity of the weighting system.   A high weighting efficiency is indicative of good panel health and good sample representivity.

  • Total TV

Total TV Ratings for Total Individuals are stable at 12.1% in the live data and 12.2% in the test data for Full Day and from 22.9% to 23% for Prime Time, once the 2014A Universe is applied. With the marginal increase in the universe size, the stable viewing in TVR % translates into an increase of almost 93 000 additional average viewers (TVRs in 000s) for the full TV day and 121 465 average viewers for Prime Time.

Due to the decline in the LSM 5 – 7 and LSM 8 – 10 Universes, both these target markets showed declines in actual TV Rating in 000s.   The LSM 5 – 7 group showed a decline of 24 676 individuals during Prime Time, while the LSM 8 – 10 group showed a decline of 8 818 viewers.   However, while LSM 8 – 10 exhibited a decline in TVRs % ratings for Prime Time, LSM 5 -7 showed slight increases in percentage ratings.

It should be noted that on a Total TV level, the changes discussed above are more reflective of the data remaining stable, than signalling any substantial changes.

 Table 1:  TOTAL TV 

table1

  • SABC 1 and SABC 2 Viewing

Total Individuals for SABC 1 declines in percentage ratings (0.1 rating for Full Day and 0.2 ratings for Prime Time) as well as actual audience count (-25 141 for Full Day; – 51 200 for Prime Time).

However, both SABC 1 and SABC 2 are the benefactors of the increase in the LSM 1 – 4 Universe, as seen by the growth in actual audience numbers for this target market (SABC 1 Prime Time grows by 65 732; SABC 2 Prime Time by 21 894). It should be noted though, that percentage ratings for this target group remains stable, rather than showing growth.

The decrease in total audience for SABC 1 may be attributed to the decline seen in the LSM 5-7 and LSM 8 – 10 target markets, occurring across all the free to air channels. This is driven by two factors: Firstly, the Universe figures for these two target groups have declined; secondly, the growth in DSTV uptake comes primarily from LSM 5- 7, who are also mostly Nguni or Sotho speakers.   Percentage ratings also decline for the LSM 5 – 7 target markets, but remains stable for LSM 8 – 10.

There is growth for the Afrikaans/Both language groups for all channels, which reflects the growth of the Universe of this target market.

Table 2:  SABC 1 

able2

Table 3:  SABC 2 

able3

  • SABC 3 Viewing

Overall, percentage ratings for SABC 3 remain stable, with decreases in the Sotho and English/Other language groups. Declines in audience numbers are small, again indicating stability, rather than negative growth.

Table 4:  SABC 3

table4

  • ETV Viewing

The ETV percentage ratings and audience count declines for Total Individuals by 18 911 for Prime Time, which is a 1.3% negative growth. However, as is the case with the SABC channels, the LSM 1 – 4 groups increase in line with the growth of this Universe’s numbers.   The Afrikaans/Both audiences also show growth for ETV.

These changes are not substantial.

Table 5:  Table ETV

table5

  • DSTV Viewing

Due to the 13.7% growth in the uptake of DSTV subscriptions, all target markets increase for Total DSTV channels. The most notable growth in average audience count (TVR 000’s) is for the LSM 5 – 7 target market, with increases of 71 646 for Full Day and 106 827 for Prime Time. Although LSM 1 – 4 also shows growth, the audience size of this target market is small (ranging between 6 713 and 14 639 individuals) for DSTV compared to the SABC channels, where it has more dominance. It must also be noted that performance is not consistent by DStv channel. Depending on which bouquet a channel can be accessed on, the increase in viewership performance differs. Compact and the lower end bouquets are growing faster than Premium.

Table 6:  DSTV Total 

table6

  • Conclusion
  • Weighting Efficiencies improve when the new Universe is implemented (from 68% to 74%, reflecting good panel health.
  • General regression of LSM’s results in declines in the LSM 5 – 7 and LSM 8 – 10 group and LSM 1 – 4 increases.  These population changes are reflected in the viewing.
  • DSTV gains due to increased penetration and increased time spent viewing (ATV).  Particularly for target markets, LSM 5 – 7, and the Nguni and Sotho language groups.   This may be attributed to increased subscription to the Compact Bouquet and less expensive offerings.

Appendix A 2014a and 2013a comparisons (individual and household)

Individual comparison

TOTAL 

CURRENT

NEW

Growth

INDIVIDUALS

UNIVERSE

UNIVERSE

#

%

AGES 4+

AMPS 2013A

AMPS 2014A

42 900 434

43 271 453

371 020

Total Males                            POP

20 917 095

21 001 266

84 171

0.40%

Total Females                         POP

21 983 339

22 270 187

286 848

1.30%

42 900 434

43 271 453

371 019

0.86%

  Western  Cape POP

5 171 677

5 358 634

186 957

3.62%

  Northern Cape POP

948 920

989 314

40 394

4.26%

  Free State POP

2 374 211

2 282 641

-91 571

-3.86%

  Eastern Cape POP

4 721 617

4 596 605

-125 012

-2.65%

  Kwazulu-Natal POP

8 019 866

7 880 135

-139 731

-1.74%

  Mpumalanga POP

3 351 713

3 431 714

80 002

2.39%

  Limpopo POP

4 217 938

4 359 727

141 790

3.36%

  Gauteng POP

11 258 620

11 394 018

135 398

1.20%

  North-West POP

2 835 875

2 978 666

142 792

5.04%

42 900 434

43 271 453

371 019

0.86%

  Afrikaans/Both               POP

5 862 358

6 147 705

285 348

4.87%

  English/Other                POP

3 758 919

3 764 178

5 259

0.14%

  Nguni                        POP

19 419 082

19 336 209

-82 873

-0.43%

  Sotho                        POP

13 860 076

14 023 362

163 287

1.18%

42 900 434

43 271 453

371 020

0.86%

LSM 1 -4                              POP

6 424 494

7 096 426

671 933

10.46%

LSM 5                                 POP

8 160 581

7 545 978

-614 603

-7.53%

LSM 6                                 POP

11 208 580

11 268 949

60 370

0.54%

LSM 7                                 POP

5 704 423

5 973 602

269 179

4.72%

LSM 8                                 POP

3 712 693

4 140 441

427 749

11.52%

LSM 9                                 POP

4 629 046

4 453 012

-176 034

-3.80%

LSM 10                                POP

3 060 619

2 793 046

-267 574

-8.74%

42 900 434

43 271 453

371 019

0.86%

LSM 1 – 4 POP

6 424 494

7 096 426

671 933

10.46%

LSM 5 – 7 POP

25 073 583

24 788 529

-285 055

-1.14%

LSM 8 – 10 POP

11 402 357

11 386 498

-15 859

-0.14%

42 900 434

43 271 453

371 019

0.86%

Age 04 – 06                           POP

3 311 373

3 294 311

-17 062

-0.52%

Age 07 – 10                           POP

3 509 583

3 784 188

274 605

7.82%

Age 11 – 14                           POP

3 356 281

3 275 090

-81 191

-2.42%

Age 15 – 24                           POP

8 243 681

8 297 724

54 043

0.66%

Age 25 – 34                           POP

8 149 340

8 184 426

35 086

0.43%

Age 35 – 49                           POP

8 128 385

8 091 618

-36 767

-0.45%

Age 50-64                        POP

5 623 721

5 663 362

39 641

0.70%

Age 65 +                          POP

2 578 070

2 680 734

102 664

3.98%

42 900 434

43 271 453

371 020

0.86%

Children POP

10 177 237

10 353 589

176 353

1.73%

Adults 15+ POP

32 723 197

32 917 864

194 667

0.59%

42 900 434

43 271 453

371 020

0.86%

  Metro POP

17 975 234

18 243 609

268 375

1.49%

  C/LT POP

5 683 857

5 701 687

17 831

0.31%

  ST/V POP

5 084 017

5 318 327

234 310

4.61%

  Rural POP

14 157 327

14 007 831

-149 497

-1.06%

42 900 434

43 271 453

371 019

0.86%

Star Sat No POP

42 272 063

42 892 920

620 857

1.47%

Star Sat Yes POP

628 371

378 533

-249 838

-39.76%

42 900 434

43 271 453

371 020

0.86%

DSTV SUBSCRIBER FIGURES
DSTV  POP

13 626 834

15 497 862

1 871 027

13.73%

NON DSTV POP

29 273 600

27 773 591

-1 500 009

-5.12%

42 900 434

43 271 453

371 019

0.86%

DSTV SUBSCRIBER FIGURES
PVR YES Ind new                       POP

2 770 512

3 321 450

550 939

19.89%

PVR NO Ind new                        POP

40 129 922

39 950 003

-179 919

-0.45%

                                     

42 900 434

43 271 453

371 020

0.86%

Household comparison

TOTAL 

CURRENT

NEW

Growth

HOUSEHOLDS

UNIVERSE

UNIVERSE

#

%

AMPS 2013A

AMPS 2014A

12 837 052

13 029 788

Metro

HH

5 719 938

5796292

76 354

1.3%

C/LT

HH

1 768 526

1742375

-26 151

-1.5%

ST/V

HH

1 537 305

1577272

39 967

2.6%

Rural

HH

3 811 284

3913849

102 565

2.7%

TOT

HH

12 837 053

13 029 788

192 735

1.5%

                                     
Western  Cape

HH

1 471 438

1549889

78 451

5.3%

Northern Cape

HH

293 935

263279

-30 656

-10.4%

Free State

HH

808 966

745126

-63 840

-7.9%

Eastern Cape

HH

1 259 248

1277398

18 150

1.4%

Kwazulu-Natal

HH

2 137 192

2131101

-6 091

-0.3%

Mpumalanga

HH

996 806

1011049

14 243

1.4%

Limpopo

HH

1 287 055

1374673

87 618

6.8%

Gauteng

HH

3 745 050

3760829

15 779

0.4%

North-West

HH

837 361

916445

79 084

9.4%

TOT

HH

12 837 051

13 029 789

192 738

1.5%

Afrikaans/Both              

HH

1 847 783

1882424

34 641

1.9%

English/Other               

HH

1 293 285

1297805

4 520

0.3%

Nguni                       

HH

5 429 381

5435922

6 541

0.1%

Sotho                       

HH

4 266 602

4413638

147 036

3.4%

TOT

HH

12 837 051

13 029 789

192 738

1.5%

StarSat – No

HH

12 675 386

12925467

250 081

2.0%

StarSat – Yes

HH

161 666

104322

-57 344

-35.5%

TOT

HH

12 837 052

13 029 789

192 737

1.5%

LSM 1 -4                             

HH

1 986 139

2146841

160 702

8.1%

LSM 5                                

HH

2 366 199

2310444

-55 755

-2.4%

LSM 6                                

HH

3 302 789

3284251

-18 538

-0.6%

LSM 7                                

HH

1 700 795

1729290

28 495

1.7%

LSM 8                                

HH

1 131 735

1286072

154 337

13.6%

LSM 9                                

HH

1 412 045

1420279

8 234

0.6%

LSM 10                               

HH

937 349

852612

-84 737

-9.0%

TOT

HH

12 837 051

13 029 789

192 738

1.5%

HH Size 1 to 3 members               

HH

7 195 549

7289161

93 612

1.3%

HH Size 4 to 5 members               

HH

3 782 137

3813765

31 628

0.8%

HH Size 6+ members                   

HH

1 859 365

1926862

67 497

3.6%

TOT

HH

12 837 051

13029788

192 737

1.5%

DSTV SUBSCRIBER FIGURES
DSTV

3 928 093

4 436 879

508 786

13.0%

NON DSTV

8 908 958

8 592 910

-316 048

-3.5%

12 837 051

13 029 789

192 738

1.5%

DSTV SUBSCRIBER FIGURES
PVR   

HH

857 240

1 018 660

161 420

18.8%

NON PVR

HH

11 979 811

12 011 129

31 318

0.3%

                                     

12 837 051

13 029 789

192 738

1.5%